{"id":1542,"date":"2026-08-21T11:41:55","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T08:41:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/?p=1542"},"modified":"2026-08-21T11:41:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T08:41:56","slug":"quarterly-letter-q4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/quarterly-letter-q4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Quarterly Letter Q4 \/ 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2025: A YEAR OF THREE MARKET DECLINES<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2025 was a year marked by extreme price volatility. We weathered three significant declines, and at each one the market commentariat declared the AI trade was over. In moments like these, the pressure to &#8216;do something&#8217; \u2014 to trade around the noise, cut winners, or move to perceived safety \u2014 is enormous. It would have been easy to capitulate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We did not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our inaction was not stubbornness, but the philosophy we presented to you at the start of the year: we do not watch the waves on the surface of the Atlantic; we watch the Gulf Stream beneath them. In our Q1 2025 letter, written during the height of the China-tariff scare, we&nbsp;argued that the fundamentals of&nbsp;our&nbsp;thesis were unchanged. We stressed&nbsp;in particular Jevons&#8217;&nbsp;paradox \u2014&nbsp;the&nbsp;economic reality that when compute costs fall, demand does not slow; it explodes. We held to that all year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2025, the largest risks came from rational thinking. Software companies rationally protected their margins. Analysts rationally&nbsp;depreciated&nbsp;down hardware acquisition costs. Both decisions were wrong, because the&nbsp;economic rules of the&nbsp;AI era have turned upside down&nbsp;\u2014&nbsp;at least partly.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Q4-2025-Asilo-Argo-Quarterly-Letter-EN.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Q4-2025-Asilo-Argo-Quarterly-Letter-EN.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-41ea56c9-56fb-47b2-ad36-3664ac75411f\" href=\"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Q4-2025-Asilo-Argo-Quarterly-Letter-EN.pdf\">Q4-2025-Asilo-Argo-Quarterly-Letter-EN<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Q4-2025-Asilo-Argo-Quarterly-Letter-EN.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-41ea56c9-56fb-47b2-ad36-3664ac75411f\">Download report<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2025: A YEAR OF THREE MARKET DECLINES\u00a0 2025 was a year marked by extreme price volatility. We weathered three significant declines, and at each one the market commentariat declared the AI trade was over. In moments like these, the pressure to &#8216;do something&#8217; \u2014 to trade around the noise, cut winners, or move to perceived [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":208,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-quarterly-letters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1542"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1542\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1543,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1542\/revisions\/1543"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/asiloam.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}